War Algorithm (New World Map Game)

The following is the war algorithm for the New World map game. This page includes the template for the algorithm, the algorithm explanation, and all conflicts which have been and are to be solved by the algorithm.

Attacker
Total:
 * Location:
 * Location bonus:
 * Tactical advantage:
 * Supporting nations:
 * Military development:
 * Economic development:
 * Technological development:
 * Industrial development:
 * Recent expansion:
 * Motive:
 * Modifiers:
 * Chance:
 * Edit count:
 * Turns:
 * [(Edit count ÷ Turns) ÷ π] = Chance
 * Nation age:
 * Nation size:
 * Participation:
 * Troops: TroopsAttacker ÷ TroopsDefender
 * Theaters of war:
 * Concurrent wars:
 * Recent wars:
 * Other stuff:

Defender
Total:
 * Location:
 * Location bonus:
 * Tactical advantage:
 * Supporting nations:
 * Military development:
 * Economic development:
 * Technological development:
 * Industrial development:
 * Infrastructure:
 * Recent expansion:
 * Motive:
 * Modifiers:
 * Chance:
 * Edit count:
 * Turns:
 * [(Edit count * Turns) ÷ π] ÷ 100 = Chance
 * Nation age:
 * Nation size:
 * Participation:
 * Troops: TroopsDefender ÷ TroopsAttacker
 * Theatres of war:
 * Concurrent wars:
 * Recent wars:
 * Other stuff:

Result
% = (TotalAttacker ÷ TotalAttacker + Defender) * 100

No. turns = [% * (1 - (100 ÷ (2*(TotalAttacker + Defender))))] ÷ 10 (round to nearest whole no.)


 * 0 — 20%: Defender changes tide of war and becomes attacker. Second algo required.
 * 20 — 30%: Attacker ceases assault with no consequences to attacker and minimal damage to defender.
 * 30 — 40%: Attacker ceases assault with no consequences to attacker and moderate damage to defender.
 * 40 — 50%: Attacker ceases assault with no consequences to either party.
 * 50 — 60%: Ceasefire occurs. Attacker and defender agree to two-way peace talks. Attacker makes minimal gains in defender territory.
 * 60 — 70%: Ceasefire occurs. Attacker and defender agree to two-way peace talks. Attacker makes moderate gains in defender territory.
 * 70 — 80%: Ceasefire occurs. Attacker and defender agree to two-way peace talks. Attacker makes significant gains in defender territory.
 * 80 — 90%: Ceasefire occurs. Attacker and defender agree to two-way peace talks. Attacker makes huge gains in defender territory.
 * 90 — 100%: Result is unconditional surrender of defender.

Algorithm explanation
This value is inversely proportionate to the military tier level of the nation.
 * Location
 * +15 if war is in home country
 * +10 if war is in a neighbouring country
 * +7 close to location of war
 * -5 far from location of war
 * -7 extremely far from location of the war.
 * Location bonus
 * +4 if war is in well known land
 * +2 if war is in a fairly known land
 * -2 if little is known about the land
 * -3 if war takes place in a land with no prior knowledge.
 * Tactical advantage:
 * +2 Attacker’s advantage
 * +5 Defender’s advantage
 * +6 Surprise attack (Attackers)
 * +4 Home is island (Defenders)
 * +5 Home is desert (Defenders)
 * +8 Home is jungle/tropical (Defenders)
 * +10 (in winter), +12 (in spring) Home is tundra/arctic (Defenders)
 * +6 Amphibious landing (Defenders).
 * +2 Defender Scorched Earth policy enforced (-1 Infrastructure tier level), -2 for attackers
 * Supporting nations
 * +3 for every nation actively participating (ie. forces are physically in battle)
 * +2 for every nation providing any two of financial, technical and/or advisory support
 * +1 for every nation providing any one of financial, technical or advisory support
 * +0.5 for every nation providing limited support
 * Military development
 * Tier 1 = +4
 * Tier 2 = +3
 * Tier 3 = +2
 * Tier 4 = +1
 * Tire 5= 0

This value is inversely proportionate to the economic tier level of the nation. This value is inversely proportionate to the technological tier level of the nation. This value is inversely proportionate to the infrastructural tier level of the nation. The size of the nation in area. Participation of the user controlling the nation. This is a factor only if the forces on both sides are known. If the forces of both sides or one side is unknown, disregard this factor.
 * Economic development
 * Technological development
 * Infrastructure
 * Recent expansion
 * 0 No expansion in the past five years
 * -1 Insignificant expansion in the past five years
 * -2 Minor expansion in the past five years
 * -3 Some expansion in the past five years
 * -4 Major expansion in the past five years
 * -5 Huge expansion in the past five years
 * Motive
 * +3 Economic gain (land, money, resources, etc)
 * +2 Aiding Ally
 * +2 Defending territory not held for more than 10 years
 * +4 Defending territory not part of heartland but held for more than 20 years
 * +3 Taking territory of similar culture but not part of nation
 * +4 Pre-emptive strike
 * +5 Taking back territory recently held by nation but since lost
 * +6 Aiding Social/Moral/Ideological/Religious Kinsmen who are being oppressed
 * +6 Attacking to enforce political hegemony
 * +5 Defending Heartland from attack that will not cripple/ destroy nation
 * +9 Defending Core/heartland from possibly fatal attack
 * +10 Defending from attack that will wipe out nation and culture.
 * Modifiers
 * -2 Non-democratic Government
 * +3 Democratic government
 * -9 Government not supported by people
 * -3 War not supported by people (Democratic)
 * -2 War not supported by people (Non-Democratic)
 * +5 Troop Morale High (requires motive over or equal to 5, chance over 4, and larger strength)
 * -5 Troop Morale Low (any of the following: chance below 1, strength less or equal to 50% of opponents, recent war penalty over 5)
 * -5 (Attacker) +1 (Defender) Fighting Guerrilla War
 * -10 Multiple concurrent wars
 * -2 (per defeat) Defeat suffered within the previous two years.
 * Chance
 * Edit count — The edit count of the user controlling the nation (at time of calculation). If the nation is mod controlled, this value is equal to 0.
 * Turns — Length of time the user has participated in the map as this nation, measured in turns. Again, if the nation is mod controlled, this value is equal to 0.
 * Nation age
 * -10 Newborn nation (less than 5 years since gov change; 3 years if popular revolt)
 * -5 Young nation (5–25 years since government change)
 * +0 Maturing nation (25–75 years)
 * +5 Mature nation (75–200 years)
 * +0 Old nation (200–300 years)
 * -5 Ancient nation (300–500 years)
 * -15 Antique nation (more than 500 years).
 * Nation size
 * -10 Very small (eg. OTL Fiji)
 * -5 Small (eg. OTL New Zealand)
 * 0 Medium (eg. OTL Spain)
 * +5 Modest (eg. OTL Sweden)
 * +10 Large (eg. OTL United States)
 * +15 Very large (eg. OTL Roman Empire)
 * -10 Extremely large (eg. OTL Russia)
 * Participation
 * -5 User not active (no action in past 4 turns)
 * 0 User moderately active (no action in past 2 turns or mod-controlled
 * +5 User active (action every turn on average)
 * Troops
 * Theatres of war
 * +2 One front
 * -5 Two fronts
 * -7 Three or more fronts
 * Concurrent wars
 * 0 None
 * -2 One concurrent war
 * -5 Two concurrent wars
 * -7 Three or more concurrent wars
 * Recent wars
 * 0 None in the past 10 years
 * -2 Conflict(s) in the past 10 years in which victory was achieved
 * -5 Conflict(s) in the past 10 years in which this nation was defeated

The total is derived from the sum of all final values.
 * Other stuff
 * Victim of a theatre nuke (Castle Bravo, Tsar bomb, UGM-27 Polaris, etc)= attacker +5, Defender -5.
 * Victim of a tactical nuke (Davy Crockett, SDDs, suitcase bombs, Hiroshima, etc)= attacker +3, Defender -3.
 * Sent spies in to the defender's nation the previous round to gain secret knowledge for the attacker= attacker +1, Defender -1.
 * Total

Attacker — Britannia
Total: 30.3
 * Location: +7
 * Location bonus: +2
 * Tactical advantage: +2 (Attacker)
 * Supporting nations: 0
 * Military development: +2.5 (Tier 2.5)
 * Economic development: +3 (Tier 2)
 * Technological development: +3 (Tier 2)
 * Industrial development: +2.5 (Tier 2.5)
 * Recent expansion: 0
 * Motive: +3 (Econ gain)
 * Modifiers: +3 (Dem gov) +5 (Morale high)
 * Chance: 5.3
 * Edit count: 50
 * Turns: 3
 * (Edit count ÷ Turns) ÷ π = Chance
 * Nation age: -15 (Antique)
 * Nation size: 0 (Medium)
 * Participation: +5 (Active)
 * Theatres of war: +2
 * Concurrent wars: 0
 * Recent wars: 0

Defender
Total: 40.5
 * Location: +15
 * Location bonus: +4
 * Tactical advantage: +5 (Defenders) +5 (Desert)
 * Supporting nations: 0
 * Military development: +2.5 (Tier 2.5)
 * Economic development: +2 (Tier 3)
 * Technological development: +2.5 (Tier 2.5)
 * Industrial development: +2 (Tier 3)
 * Infrastructure: +2.5 (Tier 2.5)
 * Recent expansion: 0
 * Motive: +10 (Def wipe out)
 * Modifiers: -2 (Non-dem) -5 (Morale low)
 * Chance: 0
 * Edit count: 0
 * Turns: 0
 * (Edit count ÷ Turns) * π = Chance
 * Nation age: -15 (Antique)
 * Nation size: +10 (Large)
 * Participation: 0
 * Theatres of war: +2
 * Concurrent wars: 0
 * Recent wars: 0

Result
42%. The war results in a stalemate. The Britannian sue for peace within 1 turn. No damage to either nation.

Attacker — South Orientalia
Total: 61.07
 * Location: +10 (Neighbour)
 * Location bonus: +4 (Well-known)
 * Tactical advantage: +2 (Attacker) +6 (Surprise) = 8
 * Supporting nations: +3 (Britannian mil support)
 * Military development: +3 (Tier 2)
 * Economic development: +4 (Tier 1)
 * Technological development: +3 (Tier 2)
 * Industrial development: +3 (Tier 2)
 * Recent expansion: 0
 * Motive: +3 (Econ gain) +3 (Similar culture) +6 (Aid kinsmen) +6 (Enforce hegemony) = +18
 * Modifiers: +3 (Dem) +5 (Morale high)
 * Chance: 4.4
 * Edit count: 694
 * Turns: 2
 * [(Edit count * Turns) ÷ π] ÷ 100 = Chance
 * Nation age: -15 (Antique)
 * Nation size: 0 (Medium)
 * Participation: +5 (Active)
 * Troops: 0.67 (300,000 vs 450,000)
 * Theatres of war: +2 (1 theatre)
 * Concurrent wars: 0
 * Recent wars: 0

Defender — North Orientalia
Total: 56
 * Location: +15 (Home)
 * Location bonus: +4 (Well-known)
 * Tactical advantage: +5 (Defender) +4 (Island) +8 (Tropical) = +17
 * Supporting nations: 0
 * Military development: +3 (Tier 2)
 * Economic development: +2.5 (Tier 2.5)
 * Technological development: +2.5 (Tier 2.5)
 * Industrial development: +2.5 (Tier 2.5)
 * Infrastructure: +2.5 (Tier 2.5)
 * Recent expansion: 0
 * Motive: +5 (Def non-fatal)
 * Modifiers: -2 (Non-dem) -5 (Low morale) = -7
 * Chance: 0.5
 * Edit count: 200
 * Turns: 4
 * [(Edit count ÷ Turns) ÷ π] ÷ 100 = Chance
 * Nation age: +5 (Mature)
 * Nation size: 0 (Medium)
 * Participation: 0 (Moderate)
 * Troops: 1.5 (450,000 vs 300,000)
 * Theaters of war: +2 (1 theater)
 * Concurrent wars: 0
 * Recent wars: 0

Result
48.7%. South Orientalia will lose some battles against North Orientalia and so sues for peace. Hardly any damage to either country, however, South Orientalia loses around 10,000 of its attacking force. The war will end in 1.5 years (3 turns). Negotiations will begin in Lawrence, Britannia.

New Result(accounting for Britannian mil support) 55%. South Orientalia makes minimal gains in Northern territory after South Orientalia wins several critical battles with Britannian assistance. North Orientalia sues for peace within 2.5 years and two-way peace talks will ensue between the Britannia/South Orientalia alliance and North Orientalia in Lawrence, Britannia.


 * 0 — 20%: Defender changes tide of war and becomes attacker. Second algo required.
 * 20 — 30%: Attacker ceases assault with no consequences to attacker and moderate damage to defender.
 * 30 — 40%: Attacker ceases assault with no consequences to attacker and minimal damage to defender.
 * 40 — 50%: Attacker ceases assault with no consequences to either party.
 * 50 — 60%: Ceasefire occurs. Attacker and defender agree to two-way peace talks. Attacker makes minimal gains in defender territory.
 * 60 — 70%: Ceasefire occurs. Attacker and defender agree to two-way peace talks. Attacker makes moderate gains in defender territory.
 * 70 — 80%: Ceasefire occurs. Attacker and defender agree to two-way peace talks. Attacker makes significant gains in defender territory.
 * 80 — 90%: Ceasefire occurs. Attacker and defender agree to two-way peace talks. Attacker makes huge gains in defender territory.
 * 90 — 100%: Result is unconditional surrender of defender.

Discussion
Just a few things i believe should be changed:
 * 1) North Orientalia's motive should not be "+9 Defending Core/heartland from possibly fatal attack" as they have basically no chance of collapsing.
 * 2) North Orientalia should have less troops. the reason for this is that it was a surprise attack, and there army was not mobilized. I think somewhere between 250,000 to 350,000 would be more plausible for them.
 * 3) and lastly, the attacker and defender are both labeled "South Orientalia"

Okay. Here is my response to these statements: — The  Tim   Man  (IH • GC • TSW • AH • Contribs ) 01:27, June 17, 2015 (UTC)
 * 1) Should South Orientalia achieve victory, North Orientalia will collapse, thus becoming a "fatal attack" upon the Democratic Socialist Republic. Therefore, the +9 in motive stands.
 * 2) North Orientalia, from what I've heard, is similar to North Korea. North Korea seems to have a military which is constantly mobilised. Therefore, the troop numbers still stand for now.
 * 3) This has been fixed.

okay, i take your point on the North Orientalia as north Korea thing, but even if i did win this, no way i would collapse it. the motive should be +5, for defending heartland from non-fatal attack. Agent Fires  01:32, June 17, 2015 (UTC)
 * Wait...I'm confused here. Didn't you want to annex North Orientalia back into the Empire? — The  Tim   Man  (IH • GC • TSW • AH • Contribs ) 01:41, June 17, 2015 (UTC)

Ummm... No. I mean, eventually, yes, of course,. But the goal of this war is simply to gain a moderate foothold in north orientalia, to exploit later. So no, my intention is not collapse them, at least in this war. Agent Fires  01:49, June 17, 2015 (UTC)
 * Ah. Fair enough. I'll fix the algorithm to reflect this. Thank you for clearing it up.
 * EDIT: Fixed.

Edit: i am now changing the alfo to account for britanaian military support. Agent Fires  01:08, June 18, 2015 (UTC)

2 questions: 1st was my new result correct, the one accounting for the mil support? And second, is Britannia opening a new front, or is it just providing military support? Thanks, Agent Fires  02:34, June 18, 2015 (UTC)

— The  Tim   Man  (IH • GC • TSW • AH • Contribs ) 02:37, June 18, 2015 (UTC)
 * 1) I'm not sure yet. I'll have to check. — EDIT: There were a few errors. I have corrected them.
 * No, Britannia was just providing military support, I believe.

Attacker — Novodonetsk
Total: 164.4
 * Location: +10 (Neighbour)
 * Location bonus: +4 (Well-known)
 * Tactical advantage: +2 (Attacker)
 * Supporting nations: +3 (Neubayern)
 * Military development: +4 (Tier 1)
 * Economic development: +4 (Tier 1)
 * Technological development: +3.5 (Tier 1.5)
 * Industrial development: +3.5 (Tier 1.5)
 * Recent expansion: 0
 * Motive: +3 (Econ gain)
 * Modifiers: +3 (Dem) +5 (High morale)
 * Chance: 117.4
 * Edit count: 2458
 * Turns: 15
 * [(Edit count * Turns) ÷ π] ÷ 100 = Chance
 * Nation age: -10 (Newborn)
 * Nation size: +5 (Modest)
 * Participation: +5 (Active)
 * Theatres of war: +2 (One front)
 * Concurrent wars: 0
 * Recent wars: 0

Defender — Rome
Total: 28
 * Location: +15 (Home)
 * Location bonus: +4 (Well-known)
 * Tactical advantage: +5 (Def)
 * Supporting nations: 0
 * Military development: +4 (Tier 1)
 * Economic development: +3 (Tier 2)
 * Technological development: +3 (Tier 2)
 * Industrial development: +3 (Tier 2)
 * Infrastructure: +4 (Tier 1)
 * Recent expansion: 0
 * Motive: +4 (Def non-heart >20)
 * Modifiers: -5 (Low morale)
 * Chance: 4.5
 * Edit count: 83
 * Turns: 17
 * [(Edit count * Turns) ÷ π] ÷ 100 = Chance
 * Nation age: -15 (Antique)
 * Nation size: +15 (V large)
 * Participation: -5 (Inactive)
 * Theatres of war: -7 (3 fronts (w/ Neubayerisch fronts))
 * Concurrent wars: 0
 * Recent wars: 0

Result
% = 85% 6 turns

85%. Novodonetsk will after significant victories occupy all Roman territories bordering Novodonetsk. Victory achieved in 6 turns (3 years) on the Donetskian front.


 * 0 — 20%: Defender changes tide of war and becomes attacker. Second algo required.
 * 20 — 30%: Attacker ceases assault with no consequences to attacker and moderate damage to defender.
 * 30 — 40%: Attacker ceases assault with no consequences to attacker and minimal damage to defender.
 * 40 — 50%: Attacker ceases assault with no consequences to either party.
 * 50 — 60%: Ceasefire occurs. Attacker and defender agree to two-way peace talks. Attacker makes minimal gains in defender territory.
 * 60 — 70%: Ceasefire occurs. Attacker and defender agree to two-way peace talks. Attacker makes moderate gains in defender territory.
 * 70 — 80%: Ceasefire occurs. Attacker and defender agree to two-way peace talks. Attacker makes significant gains in defender territory.
 * 80 — 90%: Ceasefire occurs. Attacker and defender agree to two-way peace talks. Attacker makes huge gains in defender territory.
 * 90 — 100%: Result is unconditional surrender of defender.

Attacker — Neubayern
Total: 85.1
 * Location: +10 (Neighbour)
 * Location bonus: +4 (Well known)
 * Tactical advantage: +2 (Attacker)
 * Supporting nations: +3 (Novodonetsk)
 * Military development: +4 (Tier 1)
 * Economic development: +3.5 (Tier 1.5)
 * Technological development: +3.5 (Tier 1.5)
 * Industrial development: +3 (Tier 2)
 * Recent expansion: 0
 * Motive: +2 (Aiding ally) +4 (Preemptive)
 * Modifiers: +3 (Dem) +5 (High morale)
 * Chance: 25.1
 * Edit count: 464
 * Turns: 17
 * [(Edit count * Turns) ÷ π] ÷ 100 = Chance
 * Nation age: +5 (Mature)
 * Nation size: +10 (Large)
 * Participation: +5 (Active)
 * Theatres of war: -7 (3 fronts)
 * Concurrent wars: 0
 * Recent wars: 0

Defender — Rome
Total: 28
 * Location: +15 (Home)
 * Location bonus: +4 (Well-known)
 * Tactical advantage: +5 (Def)
 * Supporting nations: 0
 * Military development: +4 (Tier 1)
 * Economic development: +3 (Tier 2)
 * Technological development: +3 (Tier 2)
 * Industrial development: +3 (Tier 2)
 * Infrastructure: +4 (Tier 1)
 * Recent expansion: 0
 * Motive: +4 (Def non-heart >20)
 * Modifiers: -5 (Low morale)
 * Chance: 4.5
 * Edit count: 83
 * Turns: 17
 * [(Edit count * Turns) ÷ π] ÷ 100 = Chance
 * Nation age: -15 (Antique)
 * Nation size: +15 (V large)
 * Participation: -5 (Inactive)
 * Theatres of war: -7 (3 fronts (w/ Donetskian front))
 * Concurrent wars: 0
 * Recent wars: 0

Result
75.2%. Neubayern will make significant gains into Roman territory, occupying all of Rome's territories lying along Neubayern's northern borders, and expanding south, occupying Rome's southeastern territories and all Roman lands lying along Neubayern's western border. The war will end in 2.5 years (5 turns).


 * 0 — 20%: Defender changes tide of war and becomes attacker. Second algo required.
 * 20 — 30%: Attacker ceases assault with no consequences to attacker and moderate damage to defender.
 * 30 — 40%: Attacker ceases assault with no consequences to attacker and minimal damage to defender.
 * 40 — 50%: Attacker ceases assault with no consequences to either party.
 * 50 — 60%: Ceasefire occurs. Attacker and defender agree to two-way peace talks. Attacker makes minimal gains in defender territory.
 * 60 — 70%: Ceasefire occurs. Attacker and defender agree to two-way peace talks. Attacker makes moderate gains in defender territory.
 * 70 — 80%: Ceasefire occurs. Attacker and defender agree to two-way peace talks. Attacker makes significant gains in defender territory.
 * 80 — 90%: Ceasefire occurs. Attacker and defender agree to two-way peace talks. Attacker makes huge gains in defender territory.
 * 90 — 100%: Result is unconditional surrender of defender.

Attacker 1 — Imperialists
Total: 1.03
 * Location: +15 (Home country)
 * Location bonus: +4 (Well known)
 * Tactical advantage: +2 (Attacker)
 * Supporting nations: 0
 * Military development: +2 (Tier 3)
 * Economic development: +2 (Tier 3)
 * Technological development: +2 (Tier 3)
 * Industrial development: +2 (Tier 3)
 * Recent expansion: -2 (Minor expansion?)
 * Motive: +6 (Political hegemony)
 * Modifiers: -2 (Non-dem) -5 (Low morale)
 * Chance: 0
 * Edit count: 0 (Mod-controlled)
 * Turns: 0 (Mod-controlled)
 * [(Edit count ÷ Turns) ÷ π] = Chance
 * Nation age: -10 (Newborn)
 * Nation size: -10 (V. small)
 * Participation: 0 (Mod-controlled)
 * Troops: 5,000/145,250 = 0.03
 * Theatres of war: -5 (Two fronts)
 * Concurrent wars: 0 (None)
 * Recent wars: 0 (None)

Attacker 2 — Socialists
Total: 2.03
 * Location: +15 (Home country)
 * Location bonus: +4 (Well known)
 * Tactical advantage: +2 (Attacker)
 * Supporting nations: +1 (One tactical support)
 * Military development: +2 (Tier 3)
 * Economic development: +2 (Tier 3)
 * Technological development: +2 (Tier 3)
 * Industrial development: +2 (Tier 3)
 * Recent expansion: -2 (Minor expansion?)
 * Motive: +6 (Political hegemony)
 * Modifiers: -2 (Non-dem) -5 (Low morale)
 * Chance: 0
 * Edit count: 0 (Mod-controlled)
 * Turns: 0 (Mod-controlled)
 * [(Edit count ÷ Turns) ÷ π] = Chance
 * Nation age: -10 (Newborn)
 * Nation size: -10 (V. small)
 * Participation: 0 (Mod-controlled)
 * Troops: 5,000/145,250 = 0.03
 * Theatres of war: -5 (Two fronts)
 * Concurrent wars: 0 (0)
 * Recent wars: 0 (None)

Defender — Loyalists
Total: 67.02
 * Location: +15 (Home)
 * Location bonus: +4 (Well-known)
 * Tactical advantage: +2
 * Supporting nations: +6 (2 nations in battle)
 * Military development: +2.5 (Tier 2.5)
 * Economic development: +2.5 (Tier 2.5)
 * Technological development: +2.5 (Tier 2.5)
 * Industrial development: +2.5 (Tier 2.5)
 * Infrastructure: +2 (Tier 3)
 * Recent expansion: 0 (None)
 * Motive: +5 (Def. no destroy)
 * Modifiers: +3 (Dem gov)
 * Chance: +0.99
 * Edit count: 78
 * Turns: 4
 * [(Edit count * Turns) ÷ π] ÷ 100 = Chance
 * Nation age: 0 (Maturing)
 * Nation size: +5 (Modest)
 * Participation: +5 (Active)
 * Troops: 140,250/10,000 = 14.03
 * Theatres of war: -5 (Two fronts)
 * Concurrent wars: 0 (None)
 * Recent wars: 0 (None)

Result
4.52%. The war will end in 6 months (1 turn). The defender changes the tide of the war and becomes the attacker. Thus, the Colnian government gains the upper hand and has the potential to stamp out the rebellions. A second algorithm calculation is required to determine the outcome of this "second" war.


 * 0 — 20%: Defender changes tide of war and becomes attacker. Second algo required.
 * 20 — 30%: Attacker ceases assault with no consequences to attacker and moderate damage to defender.
 * 30 — 40%: Attacker ceases assault with no consequences to attacker and minimal damage to defender.
 * 40 — 50%: Attacker ceases assault with no consequences to either party.
 * 50 — 60%: Ceasefire occurs. Attacker and defender agree to two-way peace talks. Attacker makes minimal gains in defender territory.
 * 60 — 70%: Ceasefire occurs. Attacker and defender agree to two-way peace talks. Attacker makes moderate gains in defender territory.
 * 70 — 80%: Ceasefire occurs. Attacker and defender agree to two-way peace talks. Attacker makes significant gains in defender territory.
 * 80 — 90%: Ceasefire occurs. Attacker and defender agree to two-way peace talks. Attacker makes huge gains in defender territory.
 * 90 — 100%: Result is unconditional surrender of defender.

Attacker — Loyalist Coalition
Total: 67.02
 * Location: +15 (Home)
 * Location bonus: +4 (Well-known)
 * Tactical advantage: +2
 * Supporting nations: +6 (2 nations in battle)
 * Military development: +2.5 (Tier 2.5)
 * Economic development: +2.5 (Tier 2.5)
 * Technological development: +2.5 (Tier 2.5)
 * Industrial development: +2.5 (Tier 2.5)
 * Infrastructure: +2 (Tier 3)
 * Recent expansion: 0 (None)
 * Motive: +5 (Def. no destroy)
 * Modifiers: +3 (Dem gov)
 * Chance: +0.99
 * Edit count: 78
 * Turns: 4
 * [(Edit count * Turns) ÷ π] ÷ 100 = Chance
 * Nation age: 0 (Maturing)
 * Nation size: +5 (Modest)
 * Participation: +5 (Active)
 * Troops: 140,250/10,000 = 14.03
 * Theatres of war: -5 (Two fronts)
 * Concurrent wars: 0 (None)
 * Recent wars: 0 (None)

Defender — Socialist/Imperialist
Total: 2.07
 * Location: +15 (Home country)
 * Location bonus: +4 (Well known)
 * Tactical advantage: +2 (Attacker)
 * Supporting nations: +1 (One tactical support)
 * Military development: +2 (Tier 3)
 * Economic development: +2 (Tier 3)
 * Technological development: +2 (Tier 3)
 * Industrial development: +2 (Tier 3)
 * Recent expansion: -2 (Minor expansion?)
 * Motive: +6 (Political hegemony)
 * Modifiers: -2 (Non-dem) -5 (Low morale)
 * Chance: 0
 * Edit count: 0 (Mod-controlled)
 * Turns: 0 (Mod-controlled)
 * [(Edit count ÷ Turns) ÷ π] = Chance
 * Nation age: -10 (Newborn)
 * Nation size: -10 (V. small)
 * Participation: 0 (Mod-controlled)
 * Troops: 10,000/145,250 = 0.07
 * Theatres of war: -5 (Two fronts)
 * Concurrent wars: 0 (0)
 * Recent wars: 0 (None)

Result
97.0%. The war will end in 3 turns (1.5 years). With Neubayerisch and O'Brian support, and assuming no other nation enters the war, the Socialist and Imperialist rebels both unconditionally surrender to government forces by 1020. Rule under the National Government of the United Provinces of Colnia will be restored.


 * 0 — 20%: Defender changes tide of war and becomes attacker. Second algo required.
 * 20 — 30%: Attacker ceases assault with no consequences to attacker and minimal damage to defender.
 * 30 — 40%: Attacker ceases assault with no consequences to attacker and moderate damage to defender.
 * 40 — 50%: Attacker ceases assault with no consequences to either party.
 * 50 — 60%: Ceasefire occurs. Attacker and defender agree to two-way peace talks. Attacker makes minimal gains in defender territory.
 * 60 — 70%: Ceasefire occurs. Attacker and defender agree to two-way peace talks. Attacker makes moderate gains in defender territory.
 * 70 — 80%: Ceasefire occurs. Attacker and defender agree to two-way peace talks. Attacker makes significant gains in defender territory.
 * 80 — 90%: Ceasefire occurs. Attacker and defender agree to two-way peace talks. Attacker makes huge gains in defender territory.
 * 90 — 100%: Result is unconditional surrender of defender.

Attacker — Neubayern/Colnia/North Orientalia/O'Brien gov-in-exile
Total: 61.32
 * Location: -5 (Far)
 * Location bonus: +4 (Well-known by O'Brien gov)
 * Tactical advantage: +2 (Attacker) +6 (Surprise by Neubayern) +8
 * Supporting nations: +6 (2 additional nations participating) +2 (O'Brien tactical) = +8
 * Military development: Average = (1 + 2 + 2.5)/3 = 3.5
 * Economic development: 3
 * Technological development: 3
 * Industrial development: 3
 * Recent expansion: -3.5 (Major exp Neubayern, min exp N.Or)
 * Motive: +3 (Econ. gain) +2 (Aiding ally) = +5
 * Modifiers: +3 (Neubayern Dem) -2 (N.Or non-dem) +3 (Col. dem) +5 (High morale) = +9
 * Chance: 2.56
 * Edit count: 676
 * Turns: 84
 * [(Edit count ÷ Turns) ÷ π] = Chance
 * Nation age: +5 (Mature)
 * Nation size: +15 (V. large)
 * Participation: +5 (Active)
 * Troops: 700,600 ÷ 920,500 = 0.76
 * Theaters of war: -5 (2 fronts)
 * Concurrent wars: 0 (None)
 * Recent wars: 0 (None)
 * Other stuff: 0 (None)

Defender — Clan Ross
Total: 16.31
 * Location: +15 (Home)
 * Location bonus: +4 (Well known)
 * Tactical advantage: +5 (Defenders)
 * Supporting nations: 0
 * Military development: +3
 * Economic development: +2.5
 * Technological development: +1
 * Industrial development: +1
 * Infrastructure: +2.5
 * Recent expansion: -5 (Huge exp)
 * Motive: +9 (Def fatal)
 * Modifiers: -2 (Non-dem) -9 (Gov not support) -5 (Morale low) = -16
 * Chance: 0
 * Edit count: 0
 * Turns: 0
 * [(Edit count * Turns) ÷ π] ÷ 100 = Chance
 * Nation age: -15 (Antique)
 * Nation size: +15 (V. large)
 * Participation: 0 (Mod)
 * Troops: 1.31
 * Theatres of war: -5 (2 fronts)
 * Concurrent wars: 0 (none)
 * Recent wars: -2 (Recent victory)
 * Other stuff: 0 (None)

Result
78.99%. The war will end in 2.5 years (5 turns) from 1032. The Clan of Ross is soundly defeated, and the Alliance will achieve victory. A race between the Allies to get to the Rossian capital of New Kildary begins before the end of the war. It is unknown who will get to New Kildary first. After the Clan of Ross' defeat, the Second O'Brian Republic is established. The Alliance engages in two-way peace talks with Ross, but the Rossians have little to no say in the proceedings. These talks result in the Treaty of New Dublin, signed in the Presidential Palace of O'Brien.


 * 0 — 20%: Defender changes tide of war and becomes attacker. Second algo required.
 * 20 — 30%: Attacker ceases assault with no consequences to attacker and minimal damage to defender.
 * 30 — 40%: Attacker ceases assault with no consequences to attacker and moderate damage to defender.
 * 40 — 50%: Attacker ceases assault with no consequences to either party.
 * 50 — 60%: Ceasefire occurs. Attacker and defender agree to two-way peace talks. Attacker makes minimal gains in defender territory.
 * 60 — 70%: Ceasefire occurs. Attacker and defender agree to two-way peace talks. Attacker makes moderate gains in defender territory.
 * 70 — 80%: Ceasefire occurs. Attacker and defender agree to two-way peace talks. Attacker makes significant gains in defender territory.
 * 80 — 90%: Ceasefire occurs. Attacker and defender agree to two-way peace talks. Attacker makes huge gains in defender territory.
 * 90 — 100%: Result is unconditional surrender of defender.

Attacker 1 - Neubayern-Novodonetsk
Total: 40.31
 * Location: -5 (Far)
 * Location bonus: -2 (Little)
 * Tactical advantage: +2 (Attacker)
 * Supporting nations: +3 (Democratic Alba), +3 (South Orientalia) +3 (Britannia) = +9
 * Military development: +4
 * Economic development: +4
 * Technological development: +3.5
 * Industrial development: +3.5
 * Recent expansion: 0 (None)
 * Motive: +2 (Aiding ally)
 * Modifiers: +3 (Dem gov) +5 (High morale) = +8
 * Chance: 4.20
 * Edit count: 1952
 * Turns: 148
 * [(Edit count ÷ Turns) ÷ π] = Chance
 * Nation age: +5 (Mature)
 * Nation size: -10 (XL)
 * Participation: +5 (Active)
 * Troops: 4,104,326 ÷ 1,948,000 = 2.11
 * Theaters of war: +2 (One front)
 * Concurrent wars: 0 (None)
 * Recent wars: 0 (None)
 * Other stuff: 0 (None)

Attacker 2 - Democratic Alba
Total: 39.45
 * Location: +10 (Neighbour)
 * Location bonus: +4 (Well-known)
 * Tactical advantage: +2 (Attacker)
 * Supporting nations: +3 (Neubayern-Novodonetsk), +3 (South Orientalia) +3 (Britannia) = +9
 * Military development: +2
 * Economic development: +1
 * Technological development: +1
 * Industrial development: +1
 * Recent expansion: 0 (None)
 * Motive: +3 (Take culture) +6 (Aiding social) = +9
 * Modifiers: +3 (Dem gov) -5 (Low morale) = -2
 * Chance: 0
 * Edit count: 0
 * Turns: 0
 * [(Edit count ÷ Turns) ÷ π] = Chance
 * Nation age: +5 (Mature)
 * Nation size: -5 (Small)
 * Participation: 0
 * Troops: 876,901 ÷ 1,948,000 = 0.45
 * Theaters of war: +2 (One front)
 * Concurrent wars: 0 (None)
 * Recent wars: 0 (None)
 * Other stuff: 0 (None)

Attacker 3 - South Orientalia
Total: 19.01
 * Location: -5 (Far)
 * Location bonus: -2 (Little)
 * Tactical advantage: +2 (Attacker)
 * Supporting nations: +3 (Democratic Alba), +3 (Neubayern-Novodonetsk) +3 (Britannia) = +9
 * Military development: +3
 * Economic development: +4
 * Technological development: +3
 * Industrial development: +3
 * Recent expansion: 0 (None)
 * Motive: +2 (Aiding ally) +6 (Aiding social) = +8
 * Modifiers: +3 (Dem gov) -5 (Low morale) = -2
 * Chance: 3.39
 * Edit count: 1066
 * Turns: 100
 * [(Edit count ÷ Turns) ÷ π] = Chance
 * Nation age: -15 (Antique)
 * Nation size: 0 (Medium)
 * Participation: +5 (Active)
 * Troops: 1,204,938 ÷ 1,948,000 = 0.62
 * Theaters of war: +2 (One front)
 * Concurrent wars: 0 (None)
 * Recent wars: 0 (None)
 * Other stuff: 0 (None)

Attacker 4 - Britannia
Total: 19.35
 * Location: -5 (Far)
 * Location bonus: -2 (Little)
 * Tactical advantage: +2 (Attacker)
 * Supporting nations: +3 (Democratic Alba), +3 (South Orientalia) +3 (Neubayern-Novodonetsk) = +9
 * Military development: +3
 * Economic development: +3.5
 * Technological development: +3
 * Industrial development: +3.5
 * Recent expansion: 0 (None)
 * Motive: +2 (Aiding ally) +6 (Aiding social) = +8
 * Modifiers: +3 (Dem gov) -5 (Low morale) = -2
 * Chance: 3.71
 * Edit count: 163
 * Turns: 14
 * [(Edit count ÷ Turns) ÷ π] = Chance
 * Nation age: -15 (Ancient)
 * Nation size: 0 (Medium)
 * Participation: +5 (Active)
 * Troops: 1,250,000 ÷ 1,948,000 = 0.64
 * Theaters of war: +2 (One front)
 * Concurrent wars: 0 (None)
 * Recent wars: 0 (None)
 * Other stuff: 0 (None)

Defender
Total: 27.12
 * Location: +15 (Homeland)
 * Location bonus: +4 (Well known)
 * Tactical advantage: +5 (Def) +12 (Tundra/spring)
 * Supporting nations: 0
 * Military development: +1.5
 * Economic development: +1.5
 * Technological development: +0.5
 * Industrial development: +1
 * Infrastructure: +1.5
 * Recent expansion: 0 (None)
 * Motive: +9 (Def fatal)
 * Modifiers: -2 (Non dem) -2 (Not supp) -5 (Low morale)
 * Chance: 2.65
 * Edit count: 25
 * Turns: 3
 * [(Edit count * Turns) ÷ π] = Chance
 * Nation age: -15 (Antique)
 * Nation size: -10 (XL)
 * Participation: +5 (Active)
 * Troops: 1,948,000 ÷ 4,104,326 = 0.47
 * Theatres of war: +2 (One front)
 * Concurrent wars: 0 (None)
 * Recent wars: 0 (None)
 * Other stuff: 0 (None)

Result
81.3%. The allies manage to make huge gains into Holy Alban territory. Holy Alba will sue for peace. A ceasefire will ensue and the allies and Holy Alba will engage in peace talks, resulting in the Treaty of Hul'kars. The war will last for 3 turns.


 * 0 — 20%: Defender changes tide of war and becomes attacker. Second algo required.
 * 20 — 30%: Attacker ceases assault with no consequences to attacker and minimal damage to defender.
 * 30 — 40%: Attacker ceases assault with no consequences to attacker and moderate damage to defender.
 * 40 — 50%: Attacker ceases assault with no consequences to either party.
 * 50 — 60%: Ceasefire occurs. Attacker and defender agree to two-way peace talks. Attacker makes minimal gains in defender territory.
 * 60 — 70%: Ceasefire occurs. Attacker and defender agree to two-way peace talks. Attacker makes moderate gains in defender territory.
 * 70 — 80%: Ceasefire occurs. Attacker and defender agree to two-way peace talks. Attacker makes significant gains in defender territory.
 * 80 — 90%: Ceasefire occurs. Attacker and defender agree to two-way peace talks. Attacker makes huge gains in defender territory.
 * 90 — 100%: Result is unconditional surrender of defender.